Wednesday, August 7, 2013

US GDP Growth Since June 2009; PCEs

According to the NBER, the recession ended in June 2009.  The above graph shows the quarterly percentage change in growth since 2009 and also shows how personal consumption expenditures have added to that growth.  What we see is a fairly consistent pattern of PCEs adding to GDP growth since 3Q09.

Let's look at the components of PCEs:

Above is a chart that shows the percentage change in the three main PCE components: durable goods (blue), non-durable goods (gold) and services (light green).  Service consumption (which accounts for about 65% of PCEs overall) has been strong since 1Q2010 while durables (which account for about 10% of PCEs) have been strong for five of the last six quarters.  Non-durables have been pretty weak throughout.