Saturday, May 24, 2014

Weekly Indicators for May 19 - 23 at

 - by New Deal democrat

My Weekly Indicator column is up at  We know enough now to conclude that the economy will continue to expand at least through the end of this year.

Friday, May 23, 2014

The Failure of Austerity: the UK

This is over at

Thursday, May 22, 2014

Housing: so what does it all mean?

 - by New Deal democrat

I have some concluding comments up at about the direction and the importance of the housing market.

What happens to single family home construction and ownership will be largely determined by interest rates.  What happens to apartment construction, in particular, is much more dependent on demographics.  If the Millennials follow the pattern of the Boomers nearly 50 years ago, apartment construction could nearly triple even from its current level over the next 5-8 years.

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

The demographic tailwind of the Millenial generation

 - by New Deal democrat

In the final installment of my more detailed look at the housing market at,  I discuss how the entry of the Echo Boom generation, a/k/a the Millenials, is  creating a demographic tailwind that is likely to continue for a long time.

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

The apartment boom

 - by New Deal democrat

Yesterday I wrote that the recovery in building of single family homes has been completely halted by higher interest rates and higher prices.

In contrast, in today's second installment, up at, I show how multi-unit dwelling construction has completely recovered and last month was close to its highest levels in 25 years.

Oil Prices Are Consolidating

One of the things that has been interesting about this expansion is the lack of impact we've seen from oil prices.  As professor Jim Hamilton has pointed out, oil price shocks have been a primary cause of most post WWII recessions, so, on the whole this is good news.

Above is a chart of oil prices.  Currently they're consolidating in a triangle pattern between the upper 90's and ~105, using the 200 day EMA as technical support

Monday, May 19, 2014

Increasing interest rates and prices have brought the recovery in single family homes to a complete halt

 - by New Deal democrat

I'm taking a deeper, segmented, look at housing. The first installment, dealing with single family houses, is up at

Chinese Weekly Chart Is Not Encouraging

Since the beginning of 2013, the Chinese stock market has been consolidating in a triangle formation.  Just as importantly, the 200 week EMA has been consistently moving lower and momentum is weak and negative.  This is not a chart that has any potential bullish implications.