- by New Deal democrat
Among the economic data that is not being reported due to the federal government shutdown are initial and continuing jobless claims. Which, as I pointed out last week, is interesting because they were reported during the lengthy 2013 shutdown and for at least part of the 2018-19 shutdown.
But both sets of claims are simply tabulations of all the claims made at the State levels (plus DC, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands), to which a seasonal adjustment is made. This means that we can reconstruct the YoY% changes in the data from the various jurisdictions’ reports; as well as provide a reasonable estimate of what the seasonably adjusted numbers would be.
Tabulating the 53 jurisdications’ reports, for the week ending October 4, unadjusted initial claims totaled 207,794 vs. 236,179 in 2024, which is -12.0% less.
Last year this week the seasonal multiplier was *1.0966:
Applying it gives us an estimated seasonally adjusted number of 228,000, a 4,000 increase from one week ago.
Adding it to the three previous weeks of data we arrive at a four week moving average of 225,500, which is 6,750 less than one year ago, or -3.1% lower.
There is an important caveat about last year in that these were affected by hurricane related layoffs, particularly in Florida and North Carolina.
Next, continuing claims with the typical one week delay, i.e., for the week ending September 27, totaled 1,683,327 vs. 1,614,324 last year, or 4.3% higher.
The seasonal adjustment for the applicable week last year was *1.510:
Applying it gives us an estimate of 1.938 million continuing claims, or +19,000 higher than one week ago.
Absent hurricane distortions, this continues the general neutral trend of initial and continuing claims, forecasting a weak but not contracting economy in the next several months. I will continue to estimate this data for the duration of the shutdown.
