- by New Deal democrat
I have started to monitor initial jobless claims to see if there are any signs of stress.
My two thresholds are:
1. If the four week average on claims is more than 10% above its expansion low.
2. If the YoY% change in the monthly average turns higher.
Here’s this week’s update.
The four week average is 8.6% above its recent low:
YoY the average is -0.5% lower than this week last June.
Last June the monthly average was 222,000. With two weeks to go this June, it is 219,000:
Like so many other economic indicators at this point, initial jobless claims remain weakly positive.