- by New Deal democrat
New jobless claims continue to be the most important weekly economic datapoint, as increasing numbers of vaccinated people and outdoor activities have led to an abatement of the pandemic - new infections are the lowest in 9 months, and deaths are at their lowest point in a year.
Eight weeks ago I set a few objective targets for new claims: to be under 500,000 by Memorial Day, and below 400,000 by Labor Day. Subject to revisions, this week we hit the first target, as seasonally adjusted claims declined 92,000 to 498,000.
On a unadjusted basis, new jobless claims declined 107,390 to 504,670. The 4 week average of claims also declined by 61,000 to 560,000. All of these were new pandemic lows.