Saturday, August 16, 2014

Weekly Indicators for August 11 - 15 at

 - by New Deal democrat

My Weekly Indicators piece is up at

With increased geopolitical and international economic concerns, the US is benefitting once again from a flight to safety.

Friday, August 15, 2014

Industrial production and nonfarm payrolls: As Good as It Gets, Millennium edition

 - by New Deal democrat

The index of industrial production has grown at nearly a 5% rate in the past year (blue in the graph below), which is as good as it has been since the turn of the Millennium with the brief exception of 2010 vs. the 2009 depths of the recession:

Similarly, nonfarm payroll growth (red), at about 1.9% YoY, is also as good as it has been since the turn of the Millennium.

In other words, where we have been over the last 12 months is what passes for the economy firing on all cylinders at any point in the last 15 years.

Just to put that in perspective, here is the same data going back to 1983:

You can see that the last 15 years have been pathetic compared to the 15 years before that (and the 1980s and 1990s weren't as good as the 1960s and 1970s).

Thursday, August 14, 2014

US consumers have been slowly tightening their pursestrings

 - by New Deal democrat

I have a new post up at, discussing the state of the American consumer in view of yesterday's flat retail sales report.  Time is running out on some fort of relief.