Thursday, January 17, 2013
Initial claims fall to "normal" range for fist time since Great Recession
- by New Deal democrat
Initial jobless claims were reported at 335,000 this morning. This is the lowest level since January 19, 2008, five years ago.
Beyond that, it is the first time that initial claims have been reported in what would be a normal, expansionary range on a population-adjusted basis since the Great Recession. In the last expansion, claims averaged between 280,000 and 325,000 before they turned south towards the end of 2007. US population has grown 4% since that time, according to the Census Bureau, making the top end of the proportionate expansionary range 338,000.
When the stragglers get added in next week, we could very well be back above that range, but for now, this is the very first time that initial claims can be reported as unambiguous "good" news.