Thursday, January 17, 2013

Morning Market Analysis

The daily semiconducter ETF chart (top chart) shows that prices are in the middle of an upward sloping channel. Prices have risen about 10 % over the last two months. The underlying technicals remain strong. However, the really impressive chart is the monthly chart (lower chart) which shows that prices consolidated in a triangle pattern, but have broken through upside resistance starting in December. Most importantly, notice the buy signal given from the MACD.

The daily chart of the TLTs (top chart) shows that prices sold off sharply at the beginning of the year, largely as a result of Congress averting the fiscal cliff.  However, since then prices have staged a relief rally and are currently hitting resistance at the 200 day EMA.  The 60 minute chart (middle chart) shows that prices have rebounded for the entire month's trading and are currently ensnared in the Fibonacci levels.  The weekly chart (bottom chart) places the action in historical position, with prices consolidating in a triangle pattern after having broken a year+ long rally.

The Chinese market is still in a rally, although it's increasing long in the tooth.  Starting at the beginning of the year, prices started moving sideways, eventually hitting the 10 day EMA for technical support.  Prices have rebounded from this level, but the bar printed yesterday is fairly weak for a follow through day.  Also note the decreasing strength of the MACD.