Friday, March 23, 2012

Reversal of fortune: now Gallup's daily spending is near post recession highs

-by New Deal democrat

Less than two weeks ago I wrote that Gallup's YoY consumer spending had turned negative for over a week. This is their daily tracking poll, and it was one of the very few times since the trough of the recession that it was negative on a YoY basis (since it is not seasonally adjusted, this is the only way to track it).

I said at the time that I didn't want to over-sell the data, and that's fortunate because it looks like I unintentionally bottom-ticked it! Since then, not only has it turned around, but as of the last two days is close to the highest it has been, ex-Christmas season, since January 2009, at $75. The only other times it has been this high are two weeks last July and August, and one week in June 2010. It is now $10 higher on a 14-day rolling average than it was last year at this same time. ICSC and Johnson Redbook seem to be showing the same rebound as Gallup does, as of last week.

I wouldn't entirely write off the negative data from two weeks ago, though. Not only did it coincide with ICSC same store sales only being up +1.7% YoY, but we now know that Shoppertrak's same store report was actually negative by a whopping -3.4% YoY that week as well.

In any event, the battle between consumers and high gas prices continues.