Monday, August 23, 2010

Yesterday's Market

Notice that the level denoted by (a) was still technically important last week, as prices attempted to move through this level, only to be rebuffed.

There were two important events last week. First was a double top, which occurred on Tuesday and Wednesday. Secondly, notice that prices had a difficult time maintaining any momentum on any attempt to move higher on Thursday and Friday. Every time prices attempted to move through the EMAs, they got above the level but couldn't continue higher.

With all three daily charts above, notice that all the averages are really floating around the 200 day EMA. In other words, for the last three months, the markets has been trying to figure out whether it's a bull or bear market.

A big reason for the equity market's indecision is the Treasury market continues to rally. Notice the uptrend that started in early April is still in play. In addition, the EMA picture is extremely bullish (a) with all the EMAs rising and the shorter above the longer. The A/D and CMF line indicate new money is coming into the market and the MACD line indicates there is clearly some momentum going forward.

Last week, the cattle market was a big winner. Prices moved through key resistance (a and b). Prices have been in an uptrend for several months (c), consolidating gains against the EMAs (d) along the way. However, the price arc is turning pretty parabolic (e), which indicates a pullback si highly likely.

Gold was also a big winner last week. Notice that prices are in an uptrend (a) and the EMAs are slowly turning more bullish (b). Also note that momentum is increasing as well (c).