Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Fundamental And Technical Events Leading To Potential Oil Price Spike

Consider the daily and weekly charts of oil:

Prices were consolidating between 104 and 108.  Now they have broken through upside resistance at the 108 by printing a very strong bar.  Also note the declining momentum reading may act as a wound coil, giving prices strong upside rallying potential.

On the weekly chart, we see rising momentum and rising volume inflow along with a technical break through resistance.

More succinctly: the daily and weekly charts are lining up for a potential bullish run in oil prices.

And now we have two fundamental events adding fuel to the fire.  The first is the Syrian situation.  The US is considering limited military strikes and the UK is proposing a UN resolution.  Secondly, inventories have been dropping:

More bluntly: technical and fundamental events may lead to a nasty oil price spike, tightening the oil choke collar and potentially slowing growth.  This is another factor that I would add to my list of economic data points concerning me right now.