Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Treasury Tuesdays

Last week, I wrote the following about the Treasury market:

I'm treating the current action as a consolidation range and would wait to make a trading move until after prices convincingly choose a direction. For the IEFs, that would be a move above 94-94.5 or a move below 92. For the TLTs, it would be a move above 93.5 or a move below 90.

Very little has changed to alter that opinion about the market. Let's start by looking at the IEFs:

Last week, prices clustered right about the 200 day EMA. The 10, 20 and 50 day EMAs are all moving higher, but are in a very tight range and are right below the 200 day EMA.

Looking at the underlying technicals, we see the A/D and CMF showing a slightly negative bias, but nothing to show a massive exodus from the market. The MACD has given a buy signal, but the lines are right around 0, indicating the EMAs are just crossing into a positive correlation.

At the long end of the curve, notice prices are finding strong resistance at the 200 day EMA -- they have hugged the line for the entire week.

The long end of the curve is still contained by the 200 day EMA -- a technically important development. In addition, the Treasury market is still in a trading range. Until we see a convincing move in either direction, I would not be trading this market.