Friday, April 29, 2011

Friday Dollar Analysis

Last week, I wrote the following about the dollar:

Given the above charts, and the fact nothing has fundamentally changed in the big picture for the dollar, my assessment of the dollar market for the coming week is the exact same as it was for last week: more moves lower with rebounds into the EMAs providing upside resistance.

Taking a look at the chart, nothing has changed. Prices are below the EMAs, all the EMAs are moving lower and the shorter EMAs are below the longer EMAs.

This week, we learned that US growth for the first quarter was 1.8%, which means the Fed will be under pressure to not raise rates. In addition, we have the following Fed statement:

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.

The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate.

The EU has already raised rates, as has China and a host of other countries. Only the US remains in 0% interest rate land, which will add further downward pressure to the dollar.