Morning Market Analysis

 

Japan consolidated from the beginning of the year to early February.  Since then, prices have moved a bit higher, which has pulled the EMAs along for the ride.  However, notice the light volume over the last two trading days and the weakening (though still positive) nature of the CMF.  The overall chart is weakening a bit.

The Indian market couldn't get above resistance at the 62 area, so has started to move lower.  Prices are now below the trend line and are right at the 50 day EMA.  Also note the weakening of the MACD and CMF.  

The Transports have spiked since the beginning of the year.  They rallied to near the end of the month in January, sold off a touch and then tried to continue moving higher.  But note the smaller candles as the market has moved higher accompanied by a decrease in the MACD.  Prices seem to have stalled right about the 105 handle.  Finally, yesterday we see a big volume spike with no price follow-through. 

Oil broke trend at the beginning of February, moved lower to the 20 day EMA and has started to move higher over the last two trading sessions.  The 98 price level has a fair amount of resistance for the chart.  Also note the weak MACD reading. 

The housing ETF rose through January, sold-off in a disciplined manner at the end of January, but had a really big day yesterday, printing a massive bar on strong volume. 

And finally, consider this hypothetical SPY chart from ETF Corner:

Japanese Consumer Confidence Makes Sharp Increase

The chart above shows big jumps since the new government started making waves.  Whether it continues is anybody's guess at this point.  However, so far the government's moves are being seen positively by the Japanese population.

Link to the data.

Is the EU Really Healing? Part 1 Germany

From the last EU press conference announcing the latest interest rate policy:

Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Euro area real GDP declined by 0.1%, quarter on quarter, in the third quarter of 2012, following a contraction of 0.2% in the second quarter. Available data continue to signal further weakness in activity in the fourth quarter and at the beginning of 2013. This weakness reflects the adverse impact of low consumer and investor sentiment on domestic expenditure, as well as subdued foreign demand. However, financial market sentiment has improved and the latest survey indicators confirm earlier evidence of a stabilisation in business and consumer confidence, albeit at low levels. Later in 2013 a gradual recovery should start, with domestic demand being supported by our accommodative monetary policy stance, the improvement in financial market confidence and reduced fragmentation, and export growth benefiting from a strengthening of global demand. 

It's standard issue for a central banker in the middle of a recession or slow economy to say that further down the road a gradual recovery will take place, largely as the effects of the central bank's policy announcement take hold.  But, let's look at the overall data to see if that's what is really happening underneath the surface.

First, I've written a fair mount on the EU over the last month or so.  Overall bank funding is improving, but consumer confidence and business confidence are still weak.  An argument could be made that each is stabilizing, but they are both still at low levels.  And from a GDP perspective, I noted the following in December:

That means that of 27 countries in the EU 27, a little under half are in a technical recession. A summation of the preceding points would be that the EU is just not doing that well.

However, let's try and read the tea leaves of the four largest EU economies: Germany, France, Italy and Spain, starting with Germany.

Germany is by far the largest economy in the EU area, accounting for about 27% of the EUs size.  As such, it's performance alone can have a disproportionate impact on the EU's growth prospects.

From the latest German Markit Manufacturing and Services sector releases we get the following:

Germany’s manufacturing sector started 2013 with improved trends in output and new business levels, contrasting with the declines seen through much of last year. The return to growth in production and new work helped lift the final seasonally adjusted Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of the performance of the manufacturing economy – to 49.8 in January, from 46.0 during December. This was only fractionally below the neutral 50.0 value, with an acceleration in job shedding the main factor weighing on the headline PMI in the latest survey period. The index has now posted below 50.0 in each of the past 11 months, but the latest reading signalled

January data pointed to resurgent growth across the German service sector, with business activity and new order volumes both rising at the fastest rate since June 2011. Adjusted for seasonal influences, the final Markit Germany Services Business Activity Index picked up from 52.0 in December to 55.7 in January. The index highlighted back-to-back monthly rises in business activity for the first time since May 2012. Moreover, the latest reading was well above its long-run average (52.9) and signalled a robust pace of output expansion that was the fastest for 19 months. The upturn in business activity at the start of 2013 reflected growth in five of the six sub-sectors monitored by the survey, with Post & Telecommunications the exception.

Let's look at the accompanying charts:

The Manufacturing chart (top chart) shows that this index has been negative for most of 2012.  However it appears to have bottomed around mid-year and is currently rebounding higher, printing just below positive in their latest print.  Overall production in the last report rebounded from a recent sharp decline, and exports -- while still being negative -- improved a bit.

The real standout is the surge in the service PMI (bottom chart).  This index went negative for the past part of 2012, but has since rebounded strongly.  The latest report noted the primary reason for this surge was a big bump in new business, caused by improved customer confidence.  This move was in contrast to the 8 months of new order decline that had occurred in 2012.

Let's turn to German GDP, which was recently released by the Bundesbank:

First please click for a larger image. 

A few points stand out in the data.  First, note the general rate of overall slowdown in the data.  In the first few quarters of 2011 we see annual prints of 5.2% and 3.1%.  By the last few quarters of last year, we're seeing prints of .5% and .4%.  While these numbers are still positive, they are just barely so.  The big reason for the slowdown is the drop in production and construction, which contracted in the last two quarters of last year.  But also note the slowing of retail purchases and inventory depletion.  The bottom line is several key components of the data slowed.  But also note the primary reason for the slowdown -- production -- is probably related to the overall slowing of the EU economy and Germany's export juggernaut.  This means that a healing EU would lead to a growing Germany.

Conclusion: Because of its size Germany has the ability to pull the EU out of its recent slow prints.  The above data point to a brightening picture for this economy, but we're not out of the woods yet.  Ideally, we'd need a new more months of strong manufacturing and service numbers.  

Morning Market Analysis: Europe Correcting.

The above charts are all from Europe -- Spain (top chart), Italy (second from top), emerging Europe (middle chart), France (second from bottom) and Germany (bottom).  All have broken trend and are now correcting.  All now have weaker MACDs.  In all, the shorter EMAs (10 and 20) are declining and the 10 is below the 20 day EMA in two chart, with the other three close to printing the cross over.  Prices are below the 10 and 20 day EMA in all charts. Also note the drop in the CMF in the Spanish and Italian markets (top two charts). 

Spain and Italy (top two charts) have already moved through the 61.8% Fib level and are working down to the 50%.   The French market (second from the bottom) is already at the top Fib fan and the German market (bottom) still has to make contact with a Fib level.

So far, this has been an orderly correction.  However, it's difficult to see the US market continuing higher at the same rate with European markets moving lower.  

The BRiCs Little Inflation and Growth Problem

Consider the following charts of the year over year percentage change in inflation from Russia, Brazil and India:

All three economies have an inflation rate that is running hot on an annual percentage change basis.  Russia's (top chart) dropped to a decent 3.6% in June of 2012.  But since then it has been rising.  While it appeared to plateau in he 6.5-6.6 area towards the end of last year, inflation edged higher in the latest report to 7.1%.  Brazilian inflation (middle chart) bottomed at 4.92% in July of last year, but has since been moving consistently higher, currently sitting at 6.15%.  It recently printed its highest level in 8 years.  And India's inflation has been stubbornly sitting at just over 7% for the last year. 

Consider the inflation information in conjunction with the GDP data below:

All three countries are seeing a drop in the GDP growth rates.

The problem each of these countries faces is that to encourage growth their respective central banks would lower interest rates.  But their respectively high inflation rates make that a non-starter, forcing them ti either find other ways to encourage growth or to accept slower economic growth.

Morning Market Analysis, or It's the "Invest That Massive Dividend You Received To Avoid the Fiscal Cliff Tax Increase" Rally

I have to admit that for the last few weeks I have been utterly perplexed by the markets.  While I understand that markets are not required to always make sense, I still like to have some understanding about what is actually going on.

The problem has been the huge split between the fundamental and technical backdrop.  While the market technicals were bullish (with the exception of breadth indicators) the economic backdrop has not been.  I highlighted this divergence here.  With the exception of China, all regions of the world are either in recession (EU, UK and Japan), suffering from slow growth (the US) or slowing growth (Russian, India and Brazil).  And while the US is in a situation where it could break-out economically thanks to car sales, housing and manufacturing, Washington is doing it's very best to thwart growth with the payroll tax hike and sequester.  Simply put, these are not macro fact patterns that support new highs on equity indexes.  And while traders keep their eyes glued to the screens during a rally, looking for a viable entry point, at some point the lack of strong fundamentals has to come into play.

And then I read this:

He also says the source of January inflows [into the equity markets] may simply be the flurry of bonuses and special dividends paid out in the US ahead of this year’s tax rises. He describes this as “a flood of demand from income that would have normally occurred in January, February and March that needs a home”.

And this:

January is historically a strong month for inflows as investors make their annual contributions to IRAs and year-end bonuses are invested. This year there was a bulge in such funds as more bonuses and dividends were paid out before the "fiscal cliff" tax hikes expected at the start of 2013. Let's have a closer look at the data:

(1) Wages and salaries in personal income popped by 0.6% during December. Odds are this number will be revised upwards given that individual income tax receipts collected by the US Treasury jumped 19.8% y/y (the most since October 2011), with the 12-month average up 1.9% m/m.

(2) Dividends in personal income spiked from $782 billion (saar) during November to $1.1 trillion during December. Data available through December show that reinvested dividends in equity mutual funds rose to a record $77.0 billion last year, with a record $46.6 billion during December alone.

In addition, consider this chart from Dr. Ed's Blog:

At the end of last year, there was a flurry of dividend payments to avert the effects of the fiscal cliff.  As the blue line shows, this action literally flooded the market with money that has to go somewhere.  So it's currently going into equities.

But at some point, that money will run out.  When this happens, the fundamentals will come back in play.

So, we're in the middle of a liquidity fueled rally with too many dollars chasing too few stocks, leading to the increase in share prices.

With that in mind, let's take a look at last week's SPY action:

The daily chart shows that the overall bullish trend is intact.  Prices are still moving higher after consolidating last week.  All the EMAs are rising and prices are using the EMAs as technical support.  But notice the MACD which has given a sell signal.

Looking deeper, we see the 60 minute chart shows that prices spent last week consolidating between 150 and 151.5 with a rising base.  The 15 minute chart shows that prices did not rally all day Friday, but instead moved higher at the open and then remained there for the remainder of the trading session.  Both charts do have positive momentum and volume indicators.

In addition, consider these breadth indicators:

Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indexes have a large percentage of stocks trading over the 200 day EMA -- an overbought sign.

Above is a chart of the last three years price action for both the SPYs and the percent of stocks trading above the 200 day EMA.  I've boxed the areas where a peak in the percent above 200 occurs.  Notice that in all three we see a slowing rise (2010-2011) or outright peak (beginning of 2012).

And finally, consider this from Marketwatch:

Corporate insiders are now selling their companies’ stock at a rate not seen since late last July.
 .....
Consider a ratio calculated by Argus Research of the number of shares insiders have sold in the open market to the number that they have bought. Last week, according to the latest issue of Argus’ service, the Vickers Weekly Insider Report, this sell-to-buy ratio stood at 5.77-to-1. And among insiders at companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange, this ratio was even more lopsided at 8.2-to-1.

Making these recent readings even more worrisome, according to Argus Research, is that they came on markedly stepped-up activity among corporate insiders. This increases our confidence that the ratio accurately reflects prevailing sentiment among a broad cross-section of the insiders.

In fact, Vickers is so alarmed by recent insider trends that this week it is selling big chunks of its two model portfolios and putting the proceeds in cash. After the sales, its “Insider Model Portfolio” will be nearly 30% in cash and its “Risk Model Portfolio” will be more than 60% in cash.

So, to sum up my points above, the current rally is technical in nature.  A bunch of new money flooded the market -- money that had to go somewhere.  But at the same time, the economic fundamentals just don't support this move higher.  Finally, the underlying breadth indicators are weak and insiders are selling into the rally.

This is not a strong bull market that will continue for a long time, barring a a change in the underlying fundamental.

Weekly Indicators: a blizzard of conflicting signals edition

- by New Deal democrat

Monthly data released last week were sparse, but included a substantial increase in December factory orders, Productivity in the 4th quarter decreased, and unit labor costs increased. Consumer credit increased, and wholesale inventories decreased.

This week continued to give some indications that tax increases may be affecting the economy. So Let's start this look at the high frequency weekly indicators by checking what is happening with tax withholding:

Employment metrics
Daily Treasury Statement tax withholding

•  $137.6 B (adjusted -13.1% for 2013 payroll tax withholding changes) vs. $146.5 B, -6.2% YoY last 20 days. The unadjusted result was $158.1 B for a 7.9% increase.

Initial jobless claims

•   366,000 down 2,000


•   4 week average 350,500 down 1,500

American Staffing Association Index

• unchanged at 89 w/w up 2.5% YoY

Employment metrics were again weak this week. Initial claims remained in their 2012 range this week. In the second half of 2012 the ASA index's performance compared with 2011 declined significantly, although the absolute index was higher. In the last two weeks, however, the Index declined below its 2007 values and has lessened its increase over last year at this time.

I am adjusting my YoY tax withholding figures to reflect the increase in personal withholding taxes. While the YoY collections are up substantially, they should be up over 15% to compesnate for the tax increase. Since I can think of no reason why employment itself should have fallen off a cliff in January, it is very possible that there is a lag in the payment of withholding taxes with the new increase. In fact, the rolling 20 day average this week is much better than the average was last week compared YoY. If this hypothesis is correct, I would expect tax withholding to be much more reliable by the end of February.

Consumer spending

• ICSC +2.4%%% w/w +2..6% YoY


• Johnson Redbook +1.5% YoY


• Gallup daily consumer spending 14 day average at $80 up nearly $20 YoY

Gallup remains significantly positive. The ICSC varied between +1.5% and +4.5% YoY in 2012. This week was again close to the bottom end of that range. Johnson Redbook is also in the lower part of its YoY growth range from 2012. Even in the worst case, it still looks like consumer spending has not collapsed due to the tax withholding increase.

Housing metrics

Housing prices

• YoY this week. +2.6%

Housing prices bottomed at the end of November 2011 on Housing Tracker, and have averaged an increase of +2.0% to +2.5% YoY for the last year.

Real estate loans, from the FRB H8 report:

• 0.3% w.w


•  +1.3% YoY


• +2.9% from its bottom

Loans turned up at the end of 2011 and averaged about 1% gains YoY through most of 2012, and have recently shown somewhat more YoY strength. This week remained was closer to the bottom of its recent YoY range.

Mortgage applications

• +2% w/w purchase applications


• +16% YoY purchase applications


• +4% w/w refinance applications

Purchase applications had been going sideways for 2 years,, but in recent weeks have finally looked like they may be breaking out of that range to the upside, but the move is not decisive yet. Refinancing applications were very high for most of last year with record low mortgage rates, which have recently increased.

Interest rates and credit spreads

• +0.13% to 4.85% BAA corporate bonds


• +0.12% to 2.02% 10 year treasury bonds


• +0.01% change at 2.83% credit spread between corporates and treasuries

Interest rates for corporate bonds have generally been falling since being just above 6% two years ago in January 2011, hitting a low of 4.46% in November 2012. Treasuries have fallen from about 2% in late 2011 to a low of 1.47% in July 2012. Spreads have varied between a high over 3.4% in June 2011 to a low under 2.75% in October 2012. The last several weeks have seen a marked increase in rates, although the YoY changes remain positive.

Money supply

M1

• +0.4% w/w


• +1.1% m/m


• +10.5% YoY Real M1

M2

• +0.1% w/w


• -0.4% m/m


• +5.3% YoY Real M2

Real M1 made a YoY high of about 20% in January 2012 and has generally been easing off since. This week's YoY reading remained above a new low set several weeks ago. Real M2 also made a YoY high of about 10.5% in January 2012. Its subsequent low was 4.5% in August 2012. It weakened once again this week. Both are still quite positive in absolute terms.

Oil prices and usage

•  Oil $95.72 down $2.05 w/w


•   gas $3.54 up $.18 w/w


• Usage 4 week average YoY +4.7%

Gas prices are increasing seasonally, although markedly so in the last week. Unusually for the last year plus, the 4 week average for the third week in a row was positive YoY.

Transport

Railroad transport

•  -9800 or -3.4% carloads YoY


• +1800 or +0.6%% carloads ex-coal


• +16,600 or +7.2% intermodal units


• +6,800 or +1.3% YoY total loads


• 9 of 20 types of carloads up YoY, a decrease of 1 from last week

Shipping transport

• Harpex up 7 at 366


• Baltic Dry Index down 10 to 748

Rail transport has been whipsawing between very positive and very negative readings over the last 2 months. This may well be the aftermath of the dock strikes. Traffic ex-coal returned to being positive this week. The Harpex index is still near its 3 year low of 352, and the Baltic Dry Index is still generally declining towards its 52 week low from last February.

Bank lending rates

• 0.225 TED spread down -0.015 w/w


• 0.2000 LIBOR down -0.006 w/w

The TED spread is barely above its 52 week low. LIBOR is again at a new 52 week low and is close to a 3 year low.

JoC ECRI Commodity prices

• up 0.02 to 129.91 w/w


• +2.15% YoY

The most important issue at the moment is whether the 2% increase in withholding tax rates is having an effect on consumers. We can add to that the issues of the impending austerity of the budget sequestration, and the potential consequences of moving income and spending forward into 2012 from 2013 due to tax increases. This week and last week it looks like we got evidence for the first time that there has been an effect.

By far the most negative data was tax withholdings, although these were not so bad as last week. Temporary jobs also stalled, and initial claims are back in their 2012 range. Bond interest rates and spreads are also increasing. Money supply, while positive, is near the lower end of its range.

Continuing positives include the housing market, money supply, consumer spedning, bank lending rates, and commodity prices. Gas prices, while rising, haven't turned constrictive yet. Gas usage has turned positive. Rail traffic is also positive again.

If austerity measures emanating from Washington are enough to tip the economy into contraction, the evidence should accumulate in the next few weeks. While there is some evidence of a consumer and employment slowdown, most of the high frequency data continues to support economic expansion.

Have a nice weekend.

Weekend Weimar, Beagle and Pit Bull

It's that time of the week again.  I'll be back on Monday.  NDD will be here tomorrow with this weekly numbers.  Until then....

Is It Time to Buy Wheat?

On the yearly chart for wheat, we see the big price move starting in mid-June of 2012, which ultimately shows a move higher of about 21%.  Prices moved sideways for the summer and fall, but eventually moved lower at the end of last year, hitting support in early January.  Prices have been consolidating between the 7.5 and 8.00 a bushel level since.

While fund managers are currently bearish on the crop, consider this key piece of data from the same Bloomberg story:

As of Feb. 5, the U.S. Drought Monitor classified 92 percent of a six-state Great Plains region with soil-moisture levels below 20 percent of normal, including some at zero, with water shortages and crop damage likely. 

“The risks to 2013-14 production are still high given the on-going drought conditions in the U.S,” said Erin FitzPatrick, an analyst at Rabobank International in London. “If we do get slightly bearish numbers from the USDA it could continue to push prices lower in the short run, but we think this will open up a buying opportunity.”

Any improvement in consumption may boost demand for U.S. supplies. Wheat on the CBOT is about $1.23 a bushel cheaper than the grain on NYSE Liffe in Paris, compared with a premium of about 71 cents a bushel in July, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

We're still in a major drought in the area of the country that grows wheat.  Until that changes, I'd be going long wheat right now.  

Morning Market Analysis

So far this month (which is basically this week), the SPYs have been consolidating gains.  The 60 minute chart (top chart) shows that prices have hit resistance at the 151.5 area with a rising base.  Also note the declining MACD for the entire duration of the chart.  The daily chart (bottom chart) shows that prices are right at support with an MACD that has given a sell signal.

The daily long-term corporate chart (top chart) shows that prices have fallen below the shorter EMAs and are now using the 200 day EMA for technical support.  The shorter EMAs are headed lower with the shorter below the longer and a negative CMF.  The weekly chart (bottom chart) shows that the technical damage is becoming more severe.  The long bull run is clearly over with prices breaking the trend at the end of last year.  Now prices are right at the 200 week EMA with a declining MACD and higher volume.  Also note the very weak position of the CMF.

The oil market broke the sharp upward trend this week, falling back to the 10 and 20 day EMA.  The 998 price level provided sufficient resistance.  The declining MACD indicates that a consolidation period is probably in order.

Barry on the End of the Secular Bear Market

From the Big Picture Blog

A decade ago, I concluded that we were in the early stages of a secular bear market, and that investors needed to adjust their risk postures accordingly. Back in December 2003, I penned a piece for the Stock Trader’s Almanac, titled Managing the Very, Very Long Term, based on this blog post from November 2003.

Long time readers know this is a major theme to for me. Much of my commentary, presentations and investing posture has been about longer term, secular cycles. Search the Big Picture for the phrase “secular bear market” and 659 results come up (in quotes, 130).

This is a great piece -- one that everybody who is interested in the market should read.  So go read the rest of it.

Are Growth Headwinds Abating?

From the latest Australian Central Bank's policy decision:

Global growth is forecast to be a little below average for a time, but the downside risks appear to have abated, for the moment at least. The United States has so far avoided a severe fiscal contraction and financial strains in Europe have lessened considerably over recent months. Growth in China has stabilised at a fairly robust pace. Around Asia generally, growth was dampened by the earlier slowing in China and the weakness in Europe, but again there are signs recently of stabilisation. Some commodity prices have firmed over recent months. 

From the latest policy decision from India:

Since the Reserve Bank’s last quarterly Policy Review in October 2012, headwinds holding back the global economy have begun to abate gradually, although sluggish conditions prevail. In the US, activity gathered momentum in the third quarter of 2012 but this is unlikely to have been sustained in the fourth quarter. While a political consensus to avert the ‘fiscal cliff’ has calmed financial markets, how the debt ceiling is managed will be crucial in shaping the market sentiment on the way forward. The euro area economy is threatened by continuing contraction, notwithstanding the liquidity firewall of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the EU’s commitment to act collectively to backstop the union. Overall, however, apprehensions that the sovereign debt crisis will disrupt the global financial system have ebbed.  

Morning Market Analysis

 

 

Yesterday, I noted the Mexican market is starting to lose momentum as prices move more and more sideways.  This trend is continuing throughout Latin America.  The Colombian market (top chart) has been trading in a tight trading range for the entire year.  While the EMAs have been moving generally higher, the shorter EMAs are starting to lose momentum.  Also note the downward trajectory of the MACD.  The Argentinean market (bottom chart) has broken the trend started in mid November and is now headed for the 200 day EMA.  Like the Colombian market, this market also has a declining MACD.

Recently, the Australian central bank kept their interest rate policy unchanged.  This exacerbated the downward trend of the Australian dollar.  On the daily chart (top chart) we see that prices have broken trend and are now headed for the 200 day EMA.  We also see a degradation of the EMA picture with the shorter EMAs crossing through the longer EMAs as prices pull all lower.  However, the real technical damage is on the weekly chart (lower chart) which shows that prices have attempted to breach the 105/106 level again, only to be rebuffed lower.  As a result, we see a decrease in the CMF.

The Japanese ETF has been consolidating between the 9.7 and 10 price level for the month of January.  Yesterday, prices broke through upside resistance on a decent volume spike.  This was accompanied by the MACD printing a buy signal.

The Malaysian market continues its drop, which has been a little over 7% since peaking at the 15.4 level.  Prices are now below the 200 day EMA which will eventually pull the other EMAs lower as well.  Also note the increase spike in volatility as evidenced by the rising Bollinger Band width.

Regarding the Rating Agencies Cases

Over the last few days, it was announced that the DOJ had filed a suit against S&P regarding the AAA valuations they gave to crap securities.  Barry over at the Big Picture has a very good summation of why the ratings agencies deserve to burn in hell.  I would like to add the following to his great take down of these "credit enablers."

First, it used to be that less sophisticated fund managers would use a rating from a ratings agency as a primary reason for buying a bond.  This was especially true in smaller markets where a portfolio manager either wore multiple hats or for whom finance was not his first line of business -- for example, small fraternal societies, smaller, regional banks, etc...   In essence, the rating essentially did their job for them.  That's is why what happened with S&P is so important.

Second, the agencies are going to lose.  How do I know that?  Email.  A central component of all these cases is an email trail.  And I guarantee you that after spending five years sifting through over 20 million pages of information, the DOJ has plenty of doozies.  Within the confines of corporate communication, people say all sorts of incredibly stupid things that essentially incriminate themselves or the organization.  As an example, read this report on the tax shelter industry that led to a criminal settlement with KPMG of over $600 million.  In the KPMG investigation, an email trail was used multiple times to counter a witnesses statements and prove they were lying.  I will bet anyone that the same situation exists here.

Third, the reason it takes so long to bring these cases is the size of the issue.  Think about how many deals S&P rated over a 5 year period.  I don't know for sure, but they were the preeminent player in the field.  So, casting the widest net possible we now have literally the entire playing field of deals done in the credit boom.  Now start to cull through all that data to the best cases to prosecute.  Of all the deals the DOJ looks at, they're going to find the best.  Remember, they get to pick their battlefield -- why not pick the ones with the greatest tactical advantage?

Fourth, like Barry I hope all of these agencies are destroyed by this case.

Is the US Economy Moving Into A Higher Growth Phase? Part II; The Negative

Yesterday, I looked at three reasons why the US economy might be moving into a higher growth mode.  I did this analysis to essentially argue with a previous conclusion I came to hat argued for slow growth going forward.  The three areas of the economy that I highlighted yesterday -- housing, auto sales and manufacturing -- could provide strong growth going forward, possibly kicking GDP growth into a higher gear.  However, there are two decidedly negative developments at the national level which are going to hurt growth.  Unfortunately, both emanate from Washington.

The Payroll Tax Increase

From CNBC:

As of Jan. 1, the payroll tax that funds Social Security was raised two percentage points to its 2010 level of 6.2 percent. It is also by far the biggest component—$125 billion of the $190 billion—in tax increases approved by Congress to fend off a bigger wave of tax hikes from the "fiscal cliff."

The basic problem with this situation is that consumers on whole have seen paltry wage gains during this expansion.  Consider this chart from the St. Louis Fed:

The year over year percentage change in average hourly earnings of production workers have been declining for the duration of this expansion.  This decline is to be expected when unemployment is still at 7.9%, leading to no upward wage pressures.

Under standard IS/LM analysis, an increase in taxes leads to a decrease in spending, and hence, national income.

The Sequester:

First, what is the sequester?

It’s a package of automatic spending cuts that’s part of the Budget Control Act (BCA), which was passed in August 2011. The cuts, which are projected to total $1.2 trillion, are scheduled to begin in 2013 and end in 2021, evenly divided over the nine-year period. The cuts are also evenly split between defense spending — with spending on wars exempt — and discretionary domestic spending, which exempts most spending on entitlements like Social Security and Medicaid, as the Bipartisan Policy Center explains. The total cuts for 2013 will be $109 billion, according to the new White House report.

Under the BCA, the cuts were triggered to take effect beginning Jan. 1 if the supercommittee didn’t to agree to a $1.2 trillion deficit-reduction package by Nov. 23, 2011. The group failed to reach a deal, so the sequester was triggered.

As people who read this blog regularly are well aware, a drop government spending leads to a drop in GDP.  We saw this last quarter with the impact of a drop in defense spending.  We've also seen this hit the UK, which has been engaging in austerity for the last few years having little success.

Under standard IS/LM analysis, a drop in government spending leads to a drop in GDP.

Thanks to the idiots in Washington, it appears that we have macro-level policies that are counter-productive to the economy as a whole.  This at a time when the economy wants to move into a higher growth mode.

Morning Market Analysis

Earlier this week, we learned that the Brazilian inflation rate came in hotter than expected.  As a result, the Brazilian central bank's policy bind is deepening.  The Brazilian market is reflecting this problem.  Despite gapping higher at the beginning of the year, the daily chart has been moving sideways for the last month (top chart).  The declining MACD shows that momentum is slowing -- which can be a sign of consolidation.  Prices overall are trading in a very narrow range (roughly 1.5-2 points).  The weekly chart (bottom chart) places the movements in a broader perspective, with prices trapped by the 200 week EMA.  However, this chart does have a positive and rising MACD.

The Japanese yen continues to move lower.  Since the new Japanese government announced they would engage in more stimulus spending and accept a higher inflation target of 2%, the yen has dropped.  Since the yen's absolute high on the six month chart of 127.36 it has dropped almost 18%.

The South Korean market has taken a hit over the last month.  After spiking up at the beginning of the year to the 65 level, prices have continued to move lower, dropping about 10% to their current price of 59, right above the 200 day EMA.  However, the real technical damage becomes apparent on the weekly chart (bottom chart).  After breaking through the top side of a consolidation triangle in the late summer, the market was moving higher.  However, now prices have broken that trend line, with the next logical price target the 50 week EMA.

The Mexican market is still moving higher, but notice the trajectory is starting to wane.  This is confirmed by the declining MACD.