Friday, June 15, 2012

Morning Market Analysis

The dollar has been moving lower for the last two weeks.  It is now below the 10 and 20 day EMA, with the 10 day EMA now turning lower.  The MACD is dropping and the RSI is getting weaker.  The next logical place for prices to test is the 22.5 area. 

In general, the corporate curve is still in strong technical shape.  However, there are a few chinks emerging.  First, notice that in the short and medium term charts momentum is dropping.  The MACD appears to have stalled in the longer (bottom) chart.  The EMAs in the short term market are now getting tangled.  Also, prices in the long term chart have broken trend.  Finally, notice that the RSI isn't strong, nor weak, but in the middle for all three charts. 

The junk bond market has moved lower to support over the last week or so.  Prices found support at the 50 day EMA with the shorter EMAs starting to move lower.  Also note the weakening RSI, MACD and CMF picture; this is a market that wants to move lower.