Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Inflation is Contained For Now

Inflation is caused by many things, one of which is the cost of raw materials. From a practical perspective, these are expressed in future's prices. As the charts below demonstrate, inflation is well contained at the present.

While both cattle and hog prices have been increasing in May, they are still below the 200 day EMA, as well as the highs established at the end of last year and the beginning part of this year.

Both corn and wheat have been trading in a low range since the end of 3Q11.

Both cotton and sugar have dropped in price over the last few months, and are now near yearly lows.

Industrial metals are near multi-year lows, and are currently over 10% below the 200 week EMA.

The weekly oil chart shows that prices have been dropping fir the last month and a half and are now below the 200 week EMA.  The shorter EMAs are dropping, as is momentum, and overall prices are weak.

Soybeans are the one "stick in the mud," but their rally is very market specific.  Weather conditions in South America led to concerns about the soybean crop.