Monday, July 29, 2013

US Employment Preview; Leading Indicators

This week we get another employment report.  So let's place the upcoming data into perspective by using the Macroblog employment spider chart categories (leading indicators, employer behavior, confidence and utilization) to get a broad picture of the US employment situation, starting with leading indicators.

The top chart shows weekly initial claims and the 4-week average of claims and places the latest reading into a 20 year historical perspective.  Claims are currently at levels associated with the mid-point of an economic expansion.  The bottom chart shows a five year history of claims and demonstrates a clear downward trend which appears to be stabilizing around the 350,000 area.

Secondly, temporary services are at very high levels and are in a clear upward trend.

In short, the leading indicators for employment are very positive.