Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Turkey Raises Key Rates 75 Basis Points To Stem Currency Slide And Slow Inflation

Count turkey as another developing country that has inflation problems:

Recently, several developments have affected inflation adversely. Surging unprocessed food prices, rising oil prices, and the increased exchange rate volatility may continue to have adverse impact on inflation in the short term. Although the Committee sees these developments as temporary to a large extent, a measured monetary tightening is deemed necessary in order to contain a deterioration in the pricing behavior.

In order to support the price and financial stability, the Committee has decided to raise the upper bound of the interest rate corridor. Cautious stance will be maintained until the inflation outlook is in line with the medium term targets. In this respect, additional monetary tightening will be implemented when necessary.

Due to ongoing uncertainties regarding the global economy and the volatility in capital flows, the Committee has decided to increase the flexibility of the liquidity management. To this end, developments regarding price stability and financial stability will be closely monitored and necessary adjustments will be made in the composition of Turkish lira liquidity provided by the Central Bank.

After moderating last fall and this spring, year over year rate of change in both the PPI and CPI has jumped in its most recent reading.

Increasing rates makes it more attractive to hold deposits and financial resources in Turkey, thereby increasing (hopefully) the stability of the country.

The Turkish ETF broke its upward trend (the red line), falling from 75.92 to 53.71 for a drop of about 30%.  Since then, prices have been fluctuating between the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib level, while also getting resistance from the 200 day EMA.