Wednesday, September 26, 2012

EVERY house price index has now turned positive

- by New Deal democrat

Last month I wrote that It isn't just Case Shiller: almost every house price index has bottomed, specifically noting that in addition to the Case Shiller index, 9 of the 11 other indexes had also turned positive YoY.

The remaining two with negative YoY comparisons were the Census Bureau's new home sales report, and the FNC repeat sales index.

Not any more. This morning the Census Bureau report on new home sales also showed that both median and mean prices for new home sales in August 2012 were positive YoY.

Further, last week FNC reported that:
Nationwide, July home prices – based on recorded sales of non-distressed properties (existing and new homes) in the 100 largest metropolitan areas – were up at a seasonally unadjusted rate of 0.9% from the previous month. They were up 0.7% from a year ago in July 2011. Year to date, home prices rose more than 4.6% since January.

So that's it. EVERY house price index has now turned positive YoY. Of course, these are nominal and not real, inflation-adjusted prices (although housing itself is about 1/3 of the entire measure of inflation, so I'm not sure how instructive that is). And yes, of course foreclosures blah blah blah shadow inventory blah blah blah. I've heard all about it for two years and it hasn't stopped the trend yet during all that time. Those who continue to advocate for that position need to explain, Why hasn't it already happened?