Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Morning Market Analysis

The daily SPY chart shows that prices are still in an uptrend, with bullishly aligned EMAs.  But while the A/D line is increasing we see a decrease in overall momentum. There are several short-term levels of support, one at 140.60 and the second at 139.6.

The 60 minute chart shows that prices are in a slightly upward sloping consolidation pattern, trading between 139 and 142.

The 60 minute QQQs chart shows two important levels.  The first is that prices have been trading between the 67.25 and 68.50 level for the last week and a half.  Secondly, below that level, we see support in the 66.75/67/25 area.  Also note the declining momentum reading in the MACD.

The dollar is trading between (roughly) 21.80 and 22.3 and is currently revolving around the 200 day EMA.  Until we see a move above or below these levels, this chart is a bit less important in the overall analysis.

All parts of the treasury curve show the same thing: prices sold-off, rebounded to a Fibonacci level and then continued their sell-off on the release of today's Fed Minutes.

Dropping treasury prices should help to send stocks higher, as treasuries have been taking the safe money out of the market.