Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Morning Market Analysis.

Yesterday, I took an extended look at equity prices.  Today, I want to focus on bonds and commodities to place their respective recent price action into perspective.

The treasury market is still above trend (IEIs) or trading in a range (IEFs and TLTs).  Again, the important issue here is prices are not selling off, which would add further fuel to the stock market rally..  Until we see that happen, there will be less upward momentum for equities.

There is good news in the industrial metals market; prices are rallied from the 50% Fib level to right around the 200 day EMA.

However, the 30-minute chart shows there is some weakness in this sector.  Starting of February 21, we see a rally.   However, Prices have yet to follow-through on any of these rallies, indicating traders are reluctant to continue buying after the initial move higher.

Looking back at the daily chart, we need to see prices move over 21.5 before saying a new move is in place.

Oil is the chart that everybody is talking about right now.  Prices have moved through resistance in the 103/104 area and are still moving higher.  All the underlying technicals are bullish -- the MACD is moving higher, the volume indicators show money flowing into the market and the EMAs are all moving higher.