Thursday, July 21, 2011

Thursday Oil Market Analysis

Last week, I wrote the following about the oil market:
Overall, prices are moving about how I thought they would after the sell-off. Remember -- there is a tremendous amount of resistance to move through right now which takes time. However, I still see prices moving higher for the next month or so.
This is in addition to the fact I see the supply/demand situation driving prices higher -- a position which I feel is bolstered by China's recent printing of a 9/5% GDP.

Let's take a look at the charts

The 5-minute daily chart shows prices moving between 95.5 and 99.25. There is no indication of a rally, although the price action looks like a consolidation.

The daily chart really shows the consolidation. Over the last few weeks, prices have formed a consolidating triangle and are hitting resistance at the 50 day EMA. The 10 and 20 day EMA are moving higher, and prices have found a center of gravity around the 200 day EMA. The MACD has given a buy signal, although the fact it is still negative tells us the 12 signal line is below the 26 signal line, although with the lines approaching a "0" crossover will soon occur -- which will give us another buy signal.

Give the fundamental supply/demand situation, I still expect prices to be moving higher. But right now, we're seeing the standard issues of prices moving through a large number of technical resistance levels on their move higher, which is to be expected given the chart.