Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Yesterday's Market

Let's start with the dollar. Over the last 10 days it has been in a clear uptrend.

The daily chart shows the move in a bit more detail (a). Also note the 10 day EMA has crossed over the 20 day EMA (b) and bother the shorter EMAs are moving higher.

The dollar is catching a safety bid from the EU situation. This has bearish implications for commodities as they are priced in dollars.

Yesterday the market opened lower (a) and moved sideways before it found resistance at the 10 minute EMA and moved lower (c). After a big move lower, prices consolidated for the rest of the day in a fairly tight range (d).

Notice that prices are still moving lower (a) and are now through the 10 and 20 day EMAs. The 50 day EMA is the next logical support level.

Oil has fallen back through key areas (A and B). Once again we see oil pulled back to lower levels. The inventory report is out on Thursday which should be interesting (to say the least).

After spiking due to the Russian situation (A), wheat prices dropped a bit and consolidated in a rectangle pattern (B). Now prices have moved through the 50 day EMA (C) while the MACD has given a sell signal (D). This is partially the result of the stronger dollar as mentioned above.