Friday, July 30, 2010

How Is This Recovery Stacking Up?

One of this sites trolls -- Bob Swern -- noted the last two quarters have shown a decrease in growth. So, let's see how this recovery's first four quarters stack up against the previous two recoveries first four quarters in terms of GDP growth.

Here is a chart comparing them:

The purple lines represent the first four quarters after the 1991 recession. Notice how they started out slowly for the first three quarters but jumped higher ain the fourth quarter after the recession. In comparison, notice the blue lines that represent the post 2001 quarter to quarter GDP growth which continually declined for three quarters after the recession ended. This recovery has printed strong numbers for the second and third quarters coming out of the recession and still printed a 2.4% in the fourth. By way of comparing the last three recession, here is a chart of the median rate of growth of the last three recoveries in he four quarters after the recession ended.

Note this recovery is printing a far stronger median growth rate than the other two recoveries four quarters in.