- by New Deal democrat
Here is the update through yesterday (April 15). Significant new items are in italics
In the US, the only significant development yesterday was that deaths rose to yet another new daily high, while infections continued to be below last week’s peak.
Since I want to look ahead, now that lockdowns appear to have worked and the number of new daily infections appears to have peaked, what should the slope of declines look like? For that, I turned to three countries in Europe all of which have seen their peaks: Spain, Germany, and Italy. Here’s what each of them look like, in order:
Spain - in the 3 weeks since peak, cases have declined by about 50% total from 10,000 per day to 5,000 per day (or 17%/week):
Germany - in the 2 weeks since peak, cases have declined by about 60% total from 8,000 per day to 3,200 per day (or 30%/week):
Italy - in the nearly 4 weeks since peak, cases have declined by about 55%, also from about 8,000 per day to 3,400 per day (or 14%/week)
Of the three countries, Germany has been doing an excellent job of testing, tracing, and isolating, so I do not expect the US to follow that trajectory. On the other hand, in the 6 days since its apparent peak, on a three day rolling bases new cases in the US has declined about -19% from peak. So, conservatively we can hope for at least 15% declines weekly from peak, or about a 60% decline to roughly 13,000 cases per day by the first week of May. That will be my next forward-looking marker.
Now, let’s look at yesterday’s numbers.
Here’s how we stand (meaningful new developments in italics):