- by New Deal democrat
Here is the update through yesterday (April 11)
This is an abbreviated version, covering just the essentials.
While it is pretty clear that the lockdown in place for 95% of the US population is having its desired effect, what is *NOT* clear is whether the plateau is real, or just reflects the stalling of daily testing at roughly 140,000. For the past 5 days, the number of new cases has increased or decreased depending on whether the number of total tests has increased or decreased. In fact one day ago the number of new cases INcreased even though the number of tests decreased.
In other words, fundamentally we are still flying blind. My suspicion is that the actual number of total infections in the US has been between 2x to 5x the 530,000 “official” count above.
Needless to say, any attempt to “open up” the lockdowns with testing so far behind - aside from creating a Constitutional crisis, assuming the States would refuse to follow a federal “order” - would be yet another disaster, as we could expect the disease to rapidly re-accelerate towards its former rate of 35% growth in new infections daily.
A slight glimmer of light is that Dr. Fauci gave an interview yesterday in which he suggested that a test for seroconversion - I.e., resistance to the disease via antibodies subsequent to infection - might be widely available in a few weeks. If I were forced to go to a “plan B” it would involve opening up the economy to those who have seroconverted and do not reside with those who have not seroconverted.