Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Coronavirus dashboard for April 15: Infections lower but deaths make new daily high

 - by New Deal democrat

Here is the update through yesterday (April 14) 

Highlights in italics. There were no significant developments yesterday. Deaths rose to a new daily high, but probably reflected the recording of the data after the weekend.

Number and rate of increase of Reported Infections (from Johns Hopkins via
  • Number: up +27,091 to 609,685 (vs. 35,219 peak on April 10)

  • ***Rate of increase: day/day: 5% (vs. 6% for the past week, and 4% on April 13)

The number of new infections has clearly declined from a recorded peak last week.
Number of deaths and infections and rate of increase of testing (from COVID Tracking Project)
  • ***Number of deaths: Total 25,668, increase of +2,299 day/day (new daily high)

  • Rate: increase of 10% day/day vs. average of 11% in past week
  • Number of tests: 146,614, up +17,500 day/day (vs. 163,769 peak on April 9)
  • Ratio of positive tests to total: 5.7:1

US States and population in total lockdown, business lockdown, and partial restrictions - no changes in past 24 hours 
Below are the States that have not gone to lockdown orders:
  • Partial restrictions on business (bars, restaurants): 5 States (IA, ND^, NE, UT*^, WY^) 9.7 million, 2.9%
  • School closure only: 2 States (AR^, SD*) 3.9 million, 1.2%
*some local areas under lockdowns
^restrictions on or quarantine of travelers from out of State
US States with “test, trace, and quarantine” programs
  • East Coast consortium: 7 States: CT, DE, MA, MD, NJ, NY, PA, RI
  • West Coast consortium: 3 States: CA, OR, WA
  • Also under development: 1 State: UT
  • Midwest consortium*: 3 States: MI, MN, WI
*procurement of medical supplies only
Summary for April 14

Here’s how we stand (meaningful new developments in italics): 
  • About 95% of the total US population remains under total lockdown.
  • In States with no lockdowns, while South Dakota has emerged as a new hotspot, its governor has denied the lack of a lockdown has played a role. Meanwhile, a mall in Nebraska plans to reopen.
  • The number of both daily new infections appears to have plateaued in the past week, while deaths made a new high.
  • The number of daily tests has stalled at about 140-150,000. As a result, we likely have been missing a large percent of new infections. My personal suspicion is that the actual number of total infections in the US is between 2-5x the official number.
  • The Trump Administration has taken no steps towards a nationwide “test, trace, and quarantine” plan that will be needed to lift lockdowns, or to assist States to do so, and is using a haphazard, secret, and likely corrupt method of distributing vital medical equipment.
  • In the absence of federal action, 14 States are either coordinating in making purchases of the necessary equipment, and/or to develop their own “test, trace, and quarantine” plan. Yesterday, Michigan’s governor indicated she was speaking with other Midwestern governors about developing such a consortium similar to the Northeast and West Coast consortiums.
  • Some private companies are developing technologies or equipment to be used in a “test, trace, and quarantine” regimen. For example, Google and Apple have premiered an app under development that will trace coronavirus contacts. 
  • Trump backed off his claims of “total authority” to “open up” States’ lockdowns.