- by New Deal democrat
Here is the update through yesterday (April 13). The bottom line is that infections and deaths appear to have plateaued, while there has been no progress towards any “test, trace, and quarantine” regimen that is the necessary next step; and to the contrary Trump appears to be bound and determined to try to reverse lockdowns anyway.
Number and rate of increase of Reported Infections (from Johns Hopkins via arcgis.com)
- Number: up +27,584 to 557,590 (vs. 35,219 prior peak on April 10
- ***Rate of increase: day/day: 5% (vs. 8% for the past week, and 6% on April 11)
Yesterday marked the lowest number of new infections in 7 days, and the smallest % increase since early March.
Number of deaths and infections and rate of increase of testing (from COVID Tracking Project)
- ***Number of deaths: Total 21,919 up +1,564 day/day
- Rate: increase of 8% day/day vs. average of 13% in past week
- Number of tests: 140,226, up +28,983 day/day
- Ratio of positive tests to total: 4.8:1
US States and population in total lockdown, business lockdown, and partial restrictions - no changes in past 24 hours
Below are the States that have not gone to lockdown orders:
- Partial restrictions on business (bars, restaurants): 5 States (IA, ND^, NE, UT*^, WY^) 9.7 million, 2.9%
- School closure only: 2 States (AR^, SD*) 3.9 million, 1.2%
*some local areas under lockdowns
^restrictions on or quarantine of travelers from out of State
US States with “test, trace, and quarantine” programs - no changes
- Under development: 6 States: CT, MA, MD, NJ, NY, UT
Summary for April 13
Here’s how we stand (meaningful new developments in italics):
- About 95% of the total US population remains under total lockdown.
- The number of both daily new infections and deaths appear to have plateaued in the past week.
- The number of daily tests has stalled at about 140-150,000. As a result, we likely have been missing a large percent of new infections. My personal suspicion is that the actual number of total infections in the US is between 2-5x the official number.
- The Trump Administration has taken no steps towards a nationwide “test, trace, and quarantine” plan that will be needed to lift lockdowns, or to assist States to do so, and is using a haphazard, secret, and likely corrupt method of distributing vital medical equipment.
- In the absence of federal action, various States are either coordinating in making purchases of the necessary equipment, and/or to develop their own “test, trace, and quarantine” plan.
- Until States or the federal government implement a regimen of “test, trace, and quarantine,” lockdowns cannot be lifted.
- Some private companies are developing technologies or equipment to be used in a “test, trace, and quarantine” regimen. For example, Google and Apple have premiered an app under development that will trace coronavirus contacts.
- Any attempt to “open up” the lockdowns with testing so far behind - aside from creating a Constitutional crisis, assuming the States would refuse to follow a (likely Unconstitutional) federal “order” - would be yet another disaster, as we could expect the disease to rapidly re-accelerate towards its former rate of 35% growth in new infections daily.
