Thursday, November 29, 2012

The Amazingly Scary Depth of the EU's Recession

The above graph is from the latest Eurostat GDP release for the EU area.  Let's consider the following information to illustrate the depth of the EU problem.

1.) The EU 17 and 27 have both contracted YOY for the last two quarters.  With the exception of the .1% Q/Q growth for the EU 27 last quarter, we'd be making the same observation for the overall EU 17 and EU 27 Q/Q results.  This is what a region wide recession looks like.

2.) Only one of the big countries is doing well -- Germany.

3.) Five countries have been contracting YOY for four straight quarters; Greece, Italy, Cyprus, Netherlands and Portugal.  Greece's contraction is especially severe.

4.) Four countries have been contracting YOY for three quarters: Spain, Czech Republic and  Hungary.

5.) Four of the give largest economies are either barely growing or shrinking: UK, Spain, Italy and France.

6.) Only three countries are growing at strong rates: Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.