Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Morning Market Analysis

The grains complex has rallied from the 200 day EMA into resistance.  Prices spiked in the early summer, but have been drifting lower since.  The underlying technicals aren't pointing to a big move higher; the CMF is negative, and while the MACD has given a technical buy signal, it's still negative and moving sideways.

The daily Hong Kong market (top chart) shows a very strong rally that has lasted for the entire six month period.  The weekly chart (bottom chart) shows that prices have broken through upside resistance and have rallied to near a two year high. 

The daily yen chart (top chart) shows the yen broke through support at the 122 level a little over a week ago and has been dropping sharply since.  The underlying technicals are all negative -- the MACD is dropping and below 0, the CMF is negative and all the EMAs are moving lower.  The weekly chart (bottom chart) shows prices are dropping sharply with a negative MACD.  Prices can ride the lower Bollinger Band down to the 200 day EMA.

The Russian market -- which broke trend in late October -- was in a counter-trend rally for the last week or so.  However, after hitting the 50 day EMA, prices broke the trend line yesterday and are now below all the EMAs again.