Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Treasury Tuesdays

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The IEFs rallied from roughly mid-June to mid-July. But the rally hit upside resistance at the 200 day EMA. This is an important technical point because the 200 day EMA separates bull and bear markets. After hitting the 200 day EMA prices moved lower. Now notice that prices are below all the EMAs and the shorter EMA (the 10 and 20) are moving lower as well. In short, the IEFs have moved into a bear market stance.

The TLTs rallied from mid-June to mid-July but have since fallen as well. While they didn't reach the 200 day EMA they did break the uptrend started in mid-June. Prices are now below all the EMAs and the shorter EMAs are heading lower. In additon, the shorter EMAs are now below the longer EMAs -- a very bearish orientation.