- by New Deal democrat
My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha.
A number of shorter term indicators - mainly stock prices and jobless claims - moved into the positive column this week, suggesting a very good near term outlook. I’m not sure I buy this, as the stock market appears to be operating under the assumption that TACO will happen again. But if the announced tariffs take effect, it’s hard to see how that isn’t both inflationary and constrictive.
Similarly, an increase in non-petroleum commodity prices is usually because of stronger demand, i.e., it is a good thing. But what if it is mainly about a declining currency instead?
I generally am mechanical about reporting the data, and avoid “special case” carve-outs, because more often than not they hide bias. In any event, if the tariffs do take effect, we will see what happens in 2 or 3 months.
As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to the data, and reward me with a penny or two for collecting and organizing it.
