Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Morning Market

Remember: what we're looking/waiting for in the equity markets is a move through support.  So far, all, we've gotten in terms of price action is sideways movement, indicating the selling pressure isn't there -- at least, not yet.

The following price levels still hold:

IWM: 79
QQQ: 59.50 - 60.25 area
SPY: 131

Copper is still rallying.  Prices have moved higher, the volume indicators show new money coming into the market and the MACD is still positive.  However, the MACD is also near to giving us a sell signal, which will become more important if we see prices move through technical support  -- especially the 200 day EMA.

The euro have broken through the upper trend line of its downward sloping channel, and is now hitting resistance at the early October lows.  The shorter term EMAs (the 10 and 20) are both rising, momentum is positive and money is flowing into the market.  A move through the 131 area would give us a new price target of 135.3 (the 200 day EMA). 

In contrast to the euro, we have the dollar, which is now clearly in a downtrend.  Prices are right at the 200 day EMA, but there are numerous, bearish indicators.  The shorter EMAs are moving lower, the CMF and A/D are printing negatively, and momentum is down.