Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Morning Market

On the day I turn bullish, the market pops higher -- it happens so rarely, that you've got to take credit for the call.  That being said, the above 5 minute charts show that the price action was weak -- upside gapping in the AM with a downward drift throughout the day.  This is the type of price action that led me to be very cautious about the market as a whole.  A lack of follow-through is very concerning.

However, the 60 minute chart is still bullish for both the QQQ, and SPY.

The fact the IWMs are still hemmed-in by their late October highs is a problem as well. 

However, the IEF and TLTs are still above long-term trends.  The good news for stock bulls is the A/D and CMF are weakening for both, but we still need to see momentum move lower.

 On the good side, industrial metals generally and copper specifically are posting strong gains.  Industrial metals are right at technical resistance and copper is right below the 200 day EMA.  On both chart, we're seeing the shorter EMAs (10, 20 and 50) move higher.  We're also seeing a nice volume surge -- especially in copper.