Thursday, October 6, 2011
The 5-minute chart shows the strength of the latest sell-off -- one which lasted for 6 days. That's one heck of a drop. Prices have since rebounded to a fib level, and are just above an important price area (roughly 113.3-114).
However, prices are still in a downward sloping channel, restricted by the downward sloping EMAs. Until prices get above the EMAs and trendline, this is nothing more than a reaction rally.
Oil is still in a very solid downtrend. First, the overall 6-month trend is very negative. Prices are below the 200 day EMA )along with the others). All the EMAs are moving lower and prices are in a downward sloping channel. Before saying prices have turned around, we need to see prices move through the 10 and 20 day EMA (which would also have them breaking the current upper channel line) and move to at least the 85 price level. But remember that the 50 day 200 day EMA are also moving lower, telling us the longer term trend is down for now.
The dollar is in a clear uptrend. It has broken through key resistance and is using the EMAs for technical support. All the EMAs are moving higher and the shorter EMAs are above the longer (with the exception of the 50 day EMA). I'd go long when prices hit the 10 day EMA with a sell stop below just in case the EU actually gets their act together.