Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Wednesday Commodity Round-Up

Let's take an in-depth look at gold to get a better idea for the safety bid in the market.

Above is a three year chart of the GLD ETF. Notice that the overall trend is up, using the 200 day EMA as technical support. Along the way we see various consolidation patterns, but always resulting in a technical bounce from an important technical indicator. But also note the large number of upward resistance points what will provide downside support when gold moves lower. Over the last few years, there have been several consolidation areas where traders "caught their breath."

The above chart shows the more recent price action in detail. The EMAs are bullishly aligned -- all are moving higher, the shorter are above the longer and prices are above all -- and prices are using the EMAs for technical support. Also note that aside from the last two days of trading, the candles have consolidated in tight patterns, indicating that traders are waiting and not panicking. However, the A/D and CMF have been declining during the latest rally, indicating prices are not being supported by new money coming in. But, we're still seeing momentum increase.

The lack of incoming money over the latest rally indicates the market may be getting a little tired. But gold is proving to be a great safe haven for investors. While the market is weak, I wouldn't be shorting.