Monday, June 13, 2011

Treasury Tuesdays

Last week I wrote the following about the Treasury Market:

Overall, I'd take profits in TLTs if you made the trade, but I'd still keep in the IEFs; there is no sign they are going to be ending their rally soon. In addition, there is still concern about a weakening economy.

My concern at the time was the MACD on the TLT, which was then giving a sell signal. Let's take a look at the charts.

With the exception of the MACD, the TLTs still have a bullish chart. The EMAs are all moving higher and prices are above the EMAs. The A/D and CMF line are all positive. However, the MACD has given a sell-signal. In addition,

Prices have broken the upward sloping trend-line, which is rarely a positive development. Also take a closer look at the price. It's dipped and then rallied, but not above previous peaks.

The overall IEF chart -- like the TLT chart -- is positive (with the same criteria). However, notice that prices are bunched over the last week or so. And the last two days have printed very weak candles with a possible MACD sell-signal on the way.

The MACD and price action is giving me pause. While these are not definitive sell-signals, they are chips in the armor. If you've made a profit, take it.