Private-sector employment increased by 297,000 from November to December on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The estimated change of employment from October to November was revised down, but only slightly, from the previously reported increase of 93,000 to an increase of 92,000. This month’s ADP National Employment Report suggests nonfarm private employment grew very strongly in December, at a pace well above what is usually associated with a declining unemployment rate. After a mid-year pause, employment seems to have accelerated as indicated by September’s employment gain of 29,000, October’s gain of 79,000, November’s gain of 92,000 and December’s gain of 297,000. Strength was also evident within all major industries and every size business tracked in the ADP Report.
The reports internals are very strong as well: small business added 117,000 jobs and medium sized businesses added 144,000. Most of the gains were in the service industries which accounted for 270,000 jobs. This report puts that much more pressure on Friday's jobs report.
ISM prints solid gain:
The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 57.1 percent in December, 2.1 percentage points higher than the 55 percent registered in November, and indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 6.5 percentage points to 63.5 percent, reflecting growth for the 13th consecutive month at a faster rate than in November. The New Orders Index increased 5.3 percentage points to 63 percent, and the Employment Index decreased 2.2 percentage points to 50.5 percent, indicating growth in employment for the fourth consecutive month, but at a slower rate. The Prices Index increased 6.8 percentage points to 70 percent, indicating that prices increased significantly in December. According to the NMI, 14 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in December. Respondents' comments vary by company and industry, but overall are mostly positive about business conditions."
Let's look at the anecdotal quotes from the report:
Notice two themes:
- "Overall business climate remains reasonably positive." (Management of Companies & Support Services)
- "Pricing pressures are starting to heat up." (Construction)
- "Outlook for 2011 is positive with an increase in spending." (Finance & Insurance)
- "Looks like more budget reductions are coming in the next year." (Educational Services)
- "Cotton prices are moving upward, but prices are being kept in line as the overall Asian market cools somewhat."(Retail Trade)
- "Business picking up for holiday — above expectations." (Transportation & Warehousing)
1.) The economy is picking up steam, leading to
2.) An increase in pricing pressures.
These two reports -- in conjunction with the ISM manufacturing report -- are very good news and a great way to start the new year.