- by New Deal democrat
As I indicated at the beginning of this week, the Index of Leading Economic Indicators appears to be at a crucial inflection point. Two of the four reports on LEI data for this week are now in, and both are strongly positive.
On Monday we got the ISM manufacturing index, the coincident part of which is a hair shy of expansion, and the leading parts of which are already showing expansion.
This morning we got June nondurable goods (and durables, which almost exactly tracked factory orders down last week, as usual). Manufacturers' orders for nondurable goods came it at +2.7%. This is a sharp increase, and the best report since the "Black September" panic of last year. Nondurable goods had been the gloomiest data of the 10 LEI's, but with June's number, are now positive for both the last 3 and 6 months.
Under the circumstances, this is an excellent number.