Monday, August 3, 2009

LEI #1: July ISM manufacturing comes in strong

- by New Deal democrat

The first of 4 reports on leading economic indicators due this week is in, the ISM manufacturing report for July, and it is a strongly positive report.

Both leading components, new orders (at 55.3) and supplier deliveries (at 52.0), showed not just slowed contraction, but actually showed robust expansion. Prices (at 55.0) also firmed. (Readings over 50.0 on this report indicate expansion; under 50.0 indicate contraction.)

The overall index came in at 48.9, beating expectations, and while technically still showing ever-so-slight contraction, the ISM states:
A PMI in excess of 41.2 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the third consecutive month in the overall economy, and continuing contraction in the manufacturing sector

Continued readings even at July's level are consistent with future GDP growth in excess of the 2% necessary to create job expansion.

Under the circumstances, this is a very strongly positive report.