Friday, August 28, 2009

Consumer Expectations Improve

- by New Deal democrat

The final August University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment was reported this morning. It had been causing me concern as during July and earlier this month, both the current conditions and the future expectations components were decreasing. The expectations component is a Leading Economic Indicator, and was the only such indicator decreasing. Added to job declines and wage stagnation, and there was great cause for concern.

Not only did the overall index improve from 63.2 earlier this month to 65.7 (but still below July's 66.0 and June's 70.8), but the expectations index, which was 62.1 earlier this month, improved to 65.0, exceeding July's 63.2 reading (although still below May's high of 69.4).

Not perfect, but back on the right track. This means that it will make a positive contribution to August's tally of LEI's, which look on track for another strong month -- the fifth in a row.