Tuesday, July 7, 2009

More on Umployment

There was more good and bad news in Friday's employment report.

First the good news

The number of people unemployed for less then five weeks is clearly on a downward path. That's good. However

The 5-14 weeks number is still increasing as is

The 15-26 weeks and

The 27 and greater weeks.

Here's what I think is happening. The longer unemployment times are structural issues. For example, construction workers who are going to out of work for some time because of the low level of housing starts etc... But the decrease in the shorter time is a very good development and indicates the longer term unemployment picture may approaching its worst level.