Monday, July 6, 2009

About the Jobs Report

There was a lot of ink spilled about Friday's jobs report. According to most it was a sign the economy isn't getting better and that we're all going to hell. However, let's take a look at a few points.

The trend of job losses was positive until Friday's report -- we had four consecutive months of decreasing losses. That makes Friday's report an outlier.

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims is still declining (although from high levels)

The Challenger job cuts report is still moving lower and

The rate of seasonally adjusted mass lay-off events and initial claimants is decreasing.

So, so far Friday's report looks like an outlier. Now, if we have a few more reports like that then we have an issue. But not until then.