Thursday, May 7, 2009

Thursday Oil Market Round-Up

The weekly chart is still very bullish. After a long and painful fall at the end of last year, prices consolidated in a triangle pattern over a 4 month period. Now prices have broken out of that pattern to the upside. The rallied and fell back to the 10 week SMA. Now they have advanced beyond the previous high which is technically a good sign. Also note the MACD and RSI have upward sloping trends and each has plenty of room to run.

The daily chart shows the consolidation. In actuality we had two triangle patterns where prices consolidated. Also note that prices rallied from the first triangle, topped and moved sideways for a bit and now are moving higher. Moves like this allow the market to "catch its breath" as it were. Some traders get out and others get in. Finally, note the MACD has given a buy signal and the RSI is increasing.

All of this is perplexing against the fundamental backdrop.

Oil stocks are increasing and are far above the average range.

Gas stocks are near the top of their average range.

Gas prices are holding steady at just above $2.00/gallon. This indicates there isn't must demand pull on prices. The lack of demand pull is coming from

A big decrease in the miles driven.

And yesterday I looked at the price charts of various transportation sub-components. They weren't pretty.