Thursday, February 19, 2009

Thursday Oil Market Roundup

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The weekly chart hasn't changed in some time. Prices are still consolidating in a triangle, while the MACD is oversold and the RSI indicates prices are weak. The price/SMA picture is still bearish: the shorter SMAs are below the longer SMAs, all the SMAs are moving lower and prices are using th 10 week SMA as upside technical resistance.

The daily chart points to consolidation. Prices have been in a triablge consolidation pattern for the last few months and prices and the SMAs are in a tight range. However, note the MACD is is maxed out -- meaning, it hasn't moved higher in some time. This implies there is a possibility of prices moving lower right now.

Bottom line: the technical picture is one of an oversold market. But the fundamental backdrop is driving prices right now: the economy is weak implying demand will be low for some time and inventories are still increasing: