Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Morning Market Analysis

Remember, in the US markets, we're on the verge of seeing important downward trend breaks in the bond market and upward trend breaks in the stock markets.  Let's see if these respective markets have made an major advances.

The QQQs have made a technical advance.  However, notice the weak bar and weak volume reading.  While no chart is perfect, this one has a fair amount to be desired.

The SPYs are in the same position; while prices have technically advanced, they really haven't made a strong enough advance from a technical perspective for this to count -- at least not yet.

And the IWMs are still contained by their downward sloping trendline.

Neither the IEFs nor the TLTs showed any meaningful downward move yesterday.  Instead, prices were more or less unchanged.

So -- in short -- we're still waiting for the firm confirmation from either the stock or bond markets -- or both in tandem.

However, let me add these two charts above into the mix.  Brazil (top chart) broke higher today and closed above resistance.  The Chinese market (bottom chart) has clearly moved above resistance and is right below the 200 day EMA.  Typically, these charts lead the US markets higher, so these are good signs.