Friday, August 17, 2012

Morning Market Analysis

The entire treasury curve continues its move lower.  All sectors have broken upward sloping tend lines and have bearish MACD formations.  Money is flowing out of the markets and volatility is increasing.  The next logical target is the 200 day EMA on the TLTs.

The SPYs have moved to a six month high.  Momentum is rising, the EMA picture is bullish and money is moving into the market.

The QQQs are approaching a 6 month high.

The IWMs are still weak, but yesterday's price action eases the negative reading.  The EMAs are moving higher and momentum is positive.  But the CMF is still negative.  Ideally, we'd like to see a stronger move in this market to confirm the rally.

Oil has broken out from its consolidation.  The price target is 100 (lows that were established in early April).