Monday, July 2, 2012

Morning Market Analysis

The big news last week was the EU deal on Friday.  This had a profound impact on some markets as shown by the following charts

The top chart -- the 60 minute SPY chart -- shows that prices were in a roughly 130-133.5 price range for most of the last month.  However, on Friday, prices jumped sharply higher, hitting levels last established in mid-late May.  The daily chart shows this in more detail.  On that chart, prices hovered about the 200 day EMA for most of June -- where they were also entangled with the EMAs.  However, prices gapped higher on Friday in reaction to the EU deal.

While treasury prices did drop, they are still in a tight range at the top of a rally.  Prices for the IEFs need to move below the 107.5 level before we can say there has been a change in this market.

Oil was also another big winner.  Prices had coalesced around the 77.5-80 price level.  On Friday, prices moved through the 10 and 20 day EMA and settled in range seen in  early June. 

The euro jumped sharply, rising to the 61.8% Fib level from the May-June decline.  Prices have also moved thought the 10 and 20 day EMAs and are now right below the 50 day EMA.

All of the above moves are one day events; so, don't read too much into them.  At the same time, technical trends change as a result of fundamental change.  Friday may prove to be important in that area; we'll have to wait and see.