Friday, July 6, 2012

Morning Market Analysis

Both the Italian (top chart) and Spanish (bottom chart) markets have broken through resistance lines and are meandering higher.  Neither rally is particularly strong; instead, prices are now caught around the 50 day EMA.  However, the underlying technicals are improving; momentum is increasing as is the volume inflow.  The shorter (10 and 20 day) EMAs are both moving higher, with the 10 either crossing or about to cross the 50.

The German and French markets are directly similar to the Italian and Spanish markets.

The above four charts show us that there is some buying on the European side -- but, given the overall weakness of the trends, I'd assume it's mostly technical in nature (traders buying a weak market only because it's weak).  

The entire US treasury curve (short end to long end) is still at elevated levels, largely as a result of the safety bid in the market.  Until we see these levels move lower, we're not going to see a meaningful rally in the markets.