Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Morning Market Analysis

The Big news yesterday in the markets was the treasury sell-off.  One of the primary problems for the equity markets going forward has been all the money tied up in government bonds.  Yesterday, we finally saw meaningful technical movement in that market across a variety of maturities.

The IEFs (top chart) saw a huge move lower.  While the volume would ideally be higher, the bar is strong and shows a big, intra-day sell-off.  While the IEIs are still above support (middle chart) the TLTs also moved lower, but here we see a big volume move. 

The intraday price action is very revealing.  First, we see a big gap lower at the open.  Prices moved sideways until just after 2PM.  Then we see a big drop, a rally into the 10 day EMA followed by a second wave of selling ending on the low point of the day.  Also note the big volume spike on the last bar.

Conversely, we see how the treasury sell-off and the stock market rally work in tandem.  Equity prices gapped higher at the open, rallied a bit, then moved sideways.  Then, right after 2PM, we see a big move higher.  The lower chart (the daily chart) shows prices printing a large bar on strong volume.

This is the main reason for the rally.  The Fed released its stress test results, and the financial sector rallied strongly in response.  Notice the very large bar and the very high volume spike.

Short version: yesterday's action may have driven a stake through the correction argument.  We do need to see some follow-through, however.